New Delhi
9 February 2006
As Washington engages New Delhi for resolving their differences
over the separation of Indian civilian and strategic nuclear facilities, an American analyst
has observed that the India-United States relationship will survive even if the nuclear
deal collapses.
"The relationship will survive even if the Indo-US deal flops because the bilateral
relations are based on economic ties and people-to-people contacts," says Dr Gary
Samore, Vice President for Global Security and Sustainability at the MacArthur
Foundation.
"[We] will do just fine ... whatever happens to the deal," he said. Dr Samore, who was in
New Delhi to speak on nuclear proliferation in the context of Iran and North Korea, felt
New Delhi would need to decide for itself how important it is to prevent Iran (from
acquiring nuclear weapons.)
"India, therefore, should calculate how best she can contribute to the international
campaign," he observed. He said one could not make an informed judgment as to how
far away Iran was from developing nuclear weapons as information was only available
on Iran's nuclear weapons grade uranium.
Dr Samore felt that although Israel was inclined to strike against Iran, it had certain
military constaints; also, sanctions were not "practical" as it was not certain how Tehran
will react or retaliate if the US were to use Israel "as a proxy" to put more pressure on
the Iranian regime.
"It could close the Strait of Hormuz or launch missiles [against Israel] ... but the
minimum it will do is to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. Once it
leaves, it will want to rebuild its nuclear programme without international inspection or
interference," he observed.
"Another consequence of striking Iran will be cutting off information and transparency ...
Iran could also retaliate by proxy [through] the Hizbollah in southern Lebanon and
Hamas in Palestine and indirectlty attack the US but without provoking full-scale conflict
with the US," he added.
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