New Delhi
18 December 2010
Chinese premier Wen Jiabao's three-day State visit at the invitation of his Indian
counterpart Manmohan Singh, which concluded a few days ago, was not expected to
yield substantive peace dividends. But, for a country and its leaders who place great
store by symbolism, it was short on it, too.
Wen's second visit here in over five years, and his 11th meeting with Singh since
becoming premier in March 2003, did not inspire critics or convert sceptics. You would
be forgiven for describing Wen's swing through New Delhi as an exercise in how not to
win friends and influence people !
While visits at the highest-level will not almost always live up to the billing or endorse
the epithets such as "pathbreaking" or "historic" (ask Obama, who found Bush and
Clinton hard acts to follow), the Chinese premier's visit -- in spite of the differences in the
nature of India-China and India-US relations -- did not compare favourably with his last
visit here in 2005, when both sides had at least an "Agreement on the Political
Parameters and Guiding Principles for the Settlement of the Boundary Question" to
show.
In the end, all that the two sides had to show by way of an outcome is a joint statement
that hid more than it revealed. There was no mention of any contentious issues, nor did
it hold out any promise for realignment of the trajectory of Sino-Indian relationship, which
by their own admission, has "acquired global and strategic significance".
This is not to suggest that the relationship is irretrievably damaged or that some of the
doomsday scenarios as painted by alarmists are a probability: that the drift in the India -
China ties cannot be arrested, or that it means good bye to Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai.
The joint statement was interesting to the extent that for the first time in many years, it
did not contain the usual formulations such as "Tibet Autonomous Region [is] part of the
territory of the People's Republic of China".
But does the omission mean India is becoming assertive vis-a-vis China? Or, are we
clutching at straws here? Jury is still out that on that one.
Some Indian analysts and a section of the Western media believe it is a case of India
beginning to flex its muscle. The Economist describes India's decision to attend the
Nobel Peace Prize ceremony, on the eve of Wen's visit, in honour of the jailed Chinese
dissident Liu Xiaobo, as a case of India "now stiffening its spine."
Writing for the Chennai Centre for China Studies, analyst B Raman says it is time India
made it clear that if China does not respect India's territorial integrity, India is no longer
bound to respect China's. "We should not stop with this. We should move further forward
by having a second look at our Tibetan policy," Mr Raman asserts, a sentiment not
shared by some others.
A retired diplomat had this to ask: "If for 60 years India has taken a certain position on
Tibet, is India willing to change that position now? If it is a signal and that signal has
been registered on the other side then the purpose has been served but to my mind, as
of now, I won't even go to the extent of saying it [the omission] is significant. It is a
signal, hopefully it has been received. One should not push [anybody] beyond a certain
point, otherwise it can have serious, adverse consequences."
At the same time, the issue has reignited the debate about India's leverages with China
and here, China's recent spat with Japan can be instructive. China did not shy away from
employing export of rare earths to arm twist Japan into releasing the captain of a
Chinese vessel had collided with a Japanese coast guard ship. Compare that with
India's response, or the lack of it, when its territorial integrity and sovereignty are
brazenly challenged by countries such as China.
For her part, foreign secretary Nirupama Rao maintains that the Sino-Indian relations are
going through a process of gradual evolution and that "with each visit of this nature[,]
more significance and more substance is added to the relationship." So are India - China
relations on the mend? "Watch this space!" is all she would say for now.
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