Kabul
30 September 2007
Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai's latest offer of talks to the Taliban was
heard above a deafening blast that claimed at least 25 lives in Kabul barely a few hours earlier.
Few expect any dramatic upturn in the situation but in a country torn apart by incessant violence
and conflict for decades, no effort is enough.
Let us wait and watch, is a common refrain on Kabul’s famous Chicken Street. President Karzai
has made similar offers to the Taliban in the past but the outcome has been none too
satisfactory. "We can only pray for peace," says Mirza, a carpet-seller, in between showing
buyers the carpets, big and small.
British Defence Minister Des Browne has said that in Afghanistan, at some stage, the Taliban
will need to be involved in the peace process because they are not going away any more than
he suspects Hamas is going away from Palestine but Dr Abdullah Abdullah, a former foreign
minister of Afghanistan, is not enthused.
Dr Abdullah says that negotiations cannot be held with people who continue their armed
activities. "[They will] have to dissociate [from] terrorist activities and disarm," he told this
newspaper in an interview. He is categorical that whoever is willing to talk to the government
has to accept the Constitution of Afghanistan, which has been endorsed by the people of
Afghanistan. "Of course," he adds as an afterthought, "if they want to have certain guarantees,
assurances, this is something which could be negotiated but with those things continuing there
is no negotiations and there should be no negotiations."
Dr Abdullah is one of the longest-serving foreign ministers of Afghanistan. He was replaced by
Dr Rangin Dadfar Spanta in March 2006. Dr Abdullah was the last major leader of the Northern
Alliance in the Karzai Government after Defence Minister Mohammad Fahim and Interior
Minister Yunis Qanuni were axed in 2004 in what was seen as an attempt by President Karzai, a
Pashtun, to reduce the domination of the Northern Alliance in the government.
Dr Abdullah is equally critical of the Taliban for demanding that the Internal Security Assistance
Force (ISAF) should quit Afghanistan, besides the restoration of Islamic law. "If today ISAF, the
international forces pulls out then we are back in the old situation," he says. "Still we solely rely
on the international forces in terms of overall stability." He hopes that the cooperation between
India and Afghanistan will continue. "India's role," he adds, "is more than its traditional role
which let's say two decades ago was expected in this region as well as worldwide as the largest
democracy, as one of the thriving economies of our region and world power."
Indian Ambassador to Afghanistan Rakesh Sood is circumspect. "It's early .... I don't know if it
(peace talks with Taliban) will happen .... It's not an easy thing to do because the international
community is not going to sit back and watch him (Karzai) make peace with Mullah Omar or
Hekmatyar ... that's unlikely to happen ... as far as the international community is concerned
these are people who are with whom you can't make peace because they are not working under
the same reference frame of the Afghan Constitution and democracy and modern state and all
the rest of it," he told this newspaper in an interview.
New Delhi revealed its mind last week when Minister of External Affairs Pranab Mukherjee told a
high-level meeting co-chaired by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and Afghanistan President
Hamid Karzai in New York that there was a "need for both a robust international political
solution and a stronger internal military response". He sought to suggest that partial solutions
will provide temporary relief and the world should not underestimate the ferocity of resurgence
of the Taliban and other terrorist groups.
Mr Mukherjee later held a bilateral meeting with Afghan Foreign Minister Rangin Dadfar Spanta
on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. They agreed on the centrality of the
security issue, noting that it posed a significant challenge to the efforts of the international
community thus far. Mr Mukherjee held another bilateral meeting with Secretary General of the
North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), Mr Jaap de Hoop Scheffer. There was a discussion on
the international security situation, with particular reference to the situation in Afghanistan. They
emphasised the importance of continued international cooperation in the reconstruction of
Afghanistan.
New Delhi believes that the top leadership like Mullah Omar, which has close links with Al
Qaeda, is unlikely to negotiate. Accordingly, it estimates that the Karzai Government stands a
better chance of making progress by focussing on the lower rungs of the Taliban. There are
about a couple of hundred people who have been ministers and deputy ministers in the Taliban
regime. Some of them have already come back, like Wakil Ahmed Muttawakil, who used to be
the foreign minister, Mullah Abdul Salam Zaeef, the Taliban ambassador in Islamabad during
2001, and commanders like Mulla Abdul Salam Rocketi. Then there are others to whom the label
of Taliban has been attached because the West thinks they are orthodox. Many of them want to
split because they see no future. They took to the gun merely because of ethnic or tribal
linkages. Theese people might expect some kind of assurance that they will not be prosecuted
or want positive incentives like assistance for resettlement.
New Delhi is also aware of a sizeable body of opinion who argue that because there has been
much more fighting, there has been many more casualties on the Taliban side. It is estimated
that about 3,200 to 3,300 people out of the 4,500 people killed were Taliban or militants. A
similar number perished last year. "If Taliban [has] taken this kind of hits then according to
some people the rank and file are seeing that this is too heavy a cost and therefore would like to
return to their own country," said a source. "Because Taliban are weak, they want to come back
and this is the time to drive a wedge to separate the top leadership which is very closely linked
to Al Qaeda because those guys are you can't negotiate with them, so you separate them, so it
weakens them... it's difficult but Karzai he has taken this public posture," the source added
Ends / Ramesh / September 30, 2007 / 1030
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