New Delhi
21 October 2007
Emergency is a "very reasonable possibility" if violence increases in
Pakistan, according to a former Department of State official from the United States.
Daniel Markey, who served on the Department of State's policy planning staff from 2003 to
2007, said in an interview to this newspaper that democracy is still "a risky game" in Pakistan.
Washington will be tempted to go along with Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf if he
contemplates emergency.
"Washington will accept it. [It] has no choice," he said, indicating that Washington will rather
have a moderate dictator and poor democracy in Pakistan than any other scenario that might
cause the country to further slide into chaos.
Markey, who is touring India and Pakistan, said that Washington and London have played a
significant role in bringing Ms Benazir Bhutto and General Musharraf together and they will want
to hold on to both democracy, which is not as democratic as one would have wished, and
Musharraf, who is not powerful, for some time to come.
He sought to suggest that the mood in Washington appears to have changed since August this
year when US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice made a telephone call to the General well
past midnight after rumours about imposition of emergency.
A senior fellow for India, Pakistan and South Asia at the Washington-based Council on Foreign
Relations today, Markey’s assessment comes amid reports that a Supreme Court judgment
against General Musharraf could lead him to declare martial law, jeopardising the parliamentary
elections that must be held by January 15 next year. The Parliament and the provincial
Assemblies will complete their terms on November 15. The Election Commission has not
announced the dates yet.
He said that Washington’s backing for General Musharraf is a recognition of necessity. The only
reason he is relevant is because he is "transitioning out", otherwise there is no love for General
Musharraf in Washington or warmth in their dealings. He felt that a series of events have
eroded the General’s authority and credibility, rendering him weaker than ever before. According
to him, the next few months will be a critical test for General Musharraf because a civilian
president has typically not had the power to control the military. "He will need to establish a
working relationship with the Inter Services Intelligence, the army, the Prime Minister and the
judiciary," he said.
Mr Markey said that the Pakistani army is tired of being at the front of political power and it is
tired of being held responsible for the ills affecting Pakistan. "Exhaustion is manifest now," he
said, "but the army could seek to reimpose if it suits its interests." Benazir Bhutto, he felt,
would be smart not to antagonise the army.
He observed that the foreign and homegrown terrorists operating in the Waziristan area of
Pakistan were coming closer together and becoming unified in their approach because they
recognise that they have a common enemy in the US and the West. "The US is impatient to see
success happen in the war on terror," he added.
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