New Delhi
19 June 2007
Six of the eight member-states of the South Asian Association for
Regional Cooperation (SAARC) figure in the top 60 countries ranked in order of their
vulnerability to violent internal conflict and societal deterioration, according to the 2007
Failed States Index published by the Foreign Policy magazine.
Afghanistan tops the list, followed by Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and
Bhutan, in that order. Pakistan and Afghanistan occupied the top two slots in the last
Failed States Index too. India, which has most of these countries and Burma in her
neighbourhood, has improved her position from 93 in 2006 to 110 this year.
The report says Pakistan, which presides over a lawless frontier country and a
disenchanted Islamist opposition whose ranks grow by the day, is among the world's 15
most vulnerable countries to become a member of the nuclear club. Pakistan also fares
poorly on the "security apparatus" and "factionalised elites" indicators.
The authors of the report say that the indicator score for security apparatus remains high
because the shadowy Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency continues to
operate as a state within a state. They go on to observe that the questionable element is
the ISI, which is believed to operate with near complete impunity.
According to Prof Kalim Bahadur, formerly of the Jawaharlal Nehru University in New
Delhi, Pakistan helped the Taliban to reconstitute in Waziristan. "Stabilise Pakistan to
stabilise Afghanistan", he asserts, but hastens to add that as long as General Pervez
Musharraf occupies power, stability cannot be restored in Afghanistan.
The report echoes Prof Bahadur's views. It suggests that fighting by a resurgent Taliban
in Afghanistan and in the lawless Northwest Frontier Province of Pakistan has the
potential to spread instability across the region. "In some of the world's most dangerous
regions, failure doesn't stop at the border's edge. It's contagious. [It] is no coincidence
that many of the world's failing states tend to cluster together. Porous borders, cultural
affinity, and widespread underdevelopment often bind populations. And when some live
in a failing state, their woes can quickly spill over into a neighbour's backyard," the
report adds.
For the second year in a row, Sudan tops the rankings as the state most at risk of failure.
Norway remains the least vulnerable state. China and Russia improved their scores
sufficiently to move out of the 60 worst states.
The Failed States Index was first introduced in 2005. It has expanded from 75 countries
in 2005 and 146 countries in 2006 to 177 this year. The 2007 Failed States Index ranks
the 177 countries based on their social, economic, and political pressures.
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