India watchful as Nepal slides back into crisis

New Delhi
30 June 2010

India was hoping Wednesday that the Maoists led by Prachanda would see
reason and support a government led by the Nepali Congress party after Prime Minister
Madhav Kumar Nepal announced his resignation in a televised speech.

Although the coming days will see intense negotiations and bargaining over Mr Nepal's
successor, India has laid down some markers that the next premier should be one who
can carry a critical mass of political leaders from other parties with him.

A source told this newspaper that it was not a question of who can command a majority,
but who will enjoy a two-third majority required for completing the task of writing the new
Constitution.

The prospects for a national unity government were not certain because the Maoists
were still mulling their options. The underlying problems could still remain unless there
was some degree of trust between the Maoists and the other parties.

However, what was becoming apparent was that Mr Nepal's party was not likely to stake
claim again. That would make Nepali Congress vice president and parliamentary party
leader Ram Chandra Poudel the front runner for the post of premier.

New Delhi had concluded that the resignation by Mr Nepal of the CPN(UML) party was
inevitable but it saw it as only the first step towards resolution of the political deadlock. It
hoped political parties could evolve a consensus for them to be able to save the peace
process.

The source said that the Maoists, who now could derive some satisfaction from Mr
Nepal's resignation, would find it difficult to obstruct parliament proceedings or to disrupt
the budget session starting from July 5.

Mr Nepal was appointed the premier more than a year ago after the government headed
by Maoist leader Prachanda resigned over the issue of sacking of army chief.

On May 28 this year, his government and the parliament would have been dissolved as
the parties failed to draft the constitution. The situation was averted after the Maoists
allowed Mr Nepal's government to extend the deadline by 12 months.

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