New Delhi
14 April 2008
On Sunday afternoon, Mr Shiv Shankar Mukherjee drove out from the
gates of the Indian Embassy at Lainchaur and headed straight to Maoist leader
Prachanda's residence at Nayabazar. Of course, the Indian ambassador went there to
congratulate the Maoist leader on his party's performance in the recently concluded
Constituent Assembly election, but for Nepal-watchers it heralded a "shift" in New Delhi's
dealings with the Maoists.
Lainchaur is only a few kilometres away from Nayabazar but the Indian envoy had not
made the journey before. At least not since October 31, 2006, when he made his first,
much-publicised, direct contact with Pushpa Kamal Dahal alias Prachanda and his
deputy Dr Baburam Bhattarai, at the Indian embassy. Prachanda drew flak from certain
quarters for visiting the Indian embassy regularly. In that sense, Sunday's meeting was
a departure, and its significance was not lost on Nepal-watchers.
Dr Ajai Sahni of the New Delhi-based Institute for Conflict Management is least surprised
by the recent turn of events. The Maoist victory in the Constituent Assembly election is a
"delayed consequence of our own actions in the last one and a half years," he told this
newspaper on Monday. "We engineered the Maoists to come to power, we emasculated
the political parties by pushing them into a grouping with a rampant power like the
Maoists," he said.
India supported monarchy when she should have supported democratic forces, Dr Sahni
said, alluding to "policy miscalculations". Again, India weakened the democratic forces
by forcing them into a Seven Party Alliance with the more powerful Maoists.
"Systematically we burnt our bridges" and there is nothing much India can do today to
repair the situation, he said. "It will be best to accept it as fait accompli and deal with
whoever is in power."
Dr Sahni believed a lot will depend on how the Maoists conduct themselves. "If they do
not cross the lines of acceptable international conduct, India would be happy to deal with
them." He did not anticipate any "direct, visible impact" of the Maoist victory on the Left-
wing extremism in India, except in perhaps giving "a great encouragement" to the
movement. Maoists in India do not have to feed off Nepal, he explained, and
Prachanda's men would not like to alienate India.
A former Indian ambassador to Nepal, Mr KV Rajan, in turn, said the "scale of support"
for the Maoists would have "undoubtedly come as a surprise" to New Delhi. Taking a
nuanced position, he said it could be argued that the concept of a red corridor extending
from "Pasupati to Tirupati" would be an inspiration for Left-wing extremists in India, but
the pressure of delivering on their promises would drive the Maoists towards a
"constructive style of politics".
"India," Mr Rajan asserted, "has not shown consistency" in her policy towards Nepal.
"India should [adopt] a mature management, understand the Nepalese psyche, and show
self-confidence of a large country instead of necessarily equating Nepalese nationalism
sentiments with anti-India sentiments." He felt the election results represent the
yearning for peace and socio-economic development, and India should see this as an
opportunity to restructure relations with Nepal.
Mr Rajan and Dr Sahni sought to suggest fear and intimidation might have contributed to
the Maoists' success at the hustings. "Free and fair election was a distant possibility
[because] apparatus of intimidation [was not] dismantled," Dr Sahni said. Mr Rajan said
the voters had a sense of fear of the Maoists before the elections and there were reports
of the Maoists employing "tactics" of intimidation, although divisions with the Nepali
Congress also contributed to the Maoists' victory.
A Ministry of External Affairs source conceded the Nepal elections were very important
for India in many ways and its verdict "marks a huge shift" for New Delhi. "Now that
credible elections have been held, and we are past the point of no return, the issues
become very different for us. Until now there was political euphoria but now the new
dispensation in Nepal has to deliver," the source added, maintaining that Nepal cannot
accomplish this task without India.
"[We] have to get involved. We would like this task to be done by the Nepalese
themselves but India will help wherever we can alone or with others. There can be a real
hope of coming out of old situation only if stability and law and order return to Nepal,"
the source said, adding New Delhi hoped a "government of national unity" is in place in
Nepal soon. On a different note, the source said three Indian private entities have
bagged contracts by open competitive bidding process in the hydel power sector of
Nepal, which bode well for the bilateral ties.
India has described the elections in Nepal as a historic step towards realising the
aspirations of the people of Nepal for a democratic future and also said the Constituent
Assembly provides a platform for the people of Nepal to determine the manner of their
governance and their future. "As always, India will stand by the people of Nepal in the
major tasks of democratisation and development that lie ahead," the Ministry of External
Affairs said in a statement on April 10.
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