New Delhi
3 November 2010
In the US, Republicans have not only wrested control of the House of
Representatives but also diminished the Democrats' majority in the Senate. It does not
bode well for Barack Obama but it offers a mixed bag of opportunities and challenges for
Manmohan Singh, whose term ends only in 2014.
The shift in the balance of power on Capitol Hill will have implications for India's foreign
policy, particularly on contentious issues such as Af-Pak, China, Iran, non-proliferation
and climate change.
The anticipation here is that Obama will not find it prudent to push for ratification of the
CTBT (Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty) at least in the next two years as the Democrats
will not have a two-thirds majority in the Senate. For India, which wants to wait till the US
and China have ratified it, this will mean less motivation to forge a national consensus
on nuclear testing. In a 2009 speech in the Czech Republic, Obama had said that he
would aggressively pursue ratification of the CTBT.
No dramatic changes are likely in Obama's Af-Pak policy but the conservatives among
the Republicans can be expected to question the roadmap drawn up for drawing down US
troops in Afghanistan. Obama might be tempted to tweak his Af-Pak policy when it comes
up for review in December. As for India, it expects to have a fair say in how the US plans
to play the end game in Afghanistan.
New Delhi should not be surprised if there will be a firmer American stand on Iran and
China. A more strident line on the Iranian nuclear programme might pose a few problems
for India, particularly as it begins its two-year term as a non-permanent member of the
United Nations Security Council in January. However, a change in the Obama
administration's attitude towards China will not be unwelcome here. Domestic opinion in
the US, fuelled in part by the global economic crisis and Washington's push for trade
and currency reforms in China, and pressure from a Republican-controlled Congress
may force Obama's hands on China.
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