New Delhi
11 September 2007
By Seema Mustafa and Ramesh Ramachandran
The UPA-Left committee met here for discussions on the civilian
nuclear energy agreement amidst a distinct hardening of stance on both sides. Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh refused to give an assurance that the deal will not be
operationalised, while the Left remained categorical that the government would have to
pay the consequences of this decision.
The shadow of mid term polls hovered over the meeting with both sides taking
exceptional care not to enter into a discussion on the finer points of the deal. They
basically agreed to exchange notes on the concerns of the Left parties, and the
government response to these on September 14 and Spetember 17 respectively. The
committee will meet formally on September 19 to discuss the implications of the Hyde
Act on the India-US 123 agreement on self reliance in the nuclear sector. Implications on
foreign policy and security cooperation will also be discussed.
The negotiations are not independent of the government's decision to start negotiations
with the IAEA for a safeguards agreement as part of the "next step" to operationalise the
deal. CPI(M) general secretary Prakash Karat made it very clear that the Left parties were
not going to allow this and said that he had lost trust in the government as it had
reneged on assurances and commitments it had made at every stage of the deal. This
was echoed by CPI leader Gurudas Dasgupta on Tuesday, "don't worry we are at the end
of the journey. We don't trust this government any more."
The civilian nuclear energy agreement is in trouble as the Left ultimatum has left the
Prime Minister with only two options: to operationalise the deal and sacrifice the
government. Or to drop the deal and save the government. In either case the deal will be
the casualty, particularly if the elections bring another government into power. The Left
parties have, however, moved into election gear with the first step being a strong
mobilisation of the cadres. Sources said that mid term polls were a near certainty as it
was highly unlikely that the Congress party would back off from the deal with the US.
Sources said that the Manmohan Singh Government is keen that an India-specific
safeguards agreement is concluded with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
by October, so that the Bush Administration has just enough time for taking the next
steps before it enters an election year in 2008. India will also need to get the safeguards
agreement approved by a majority of the IAEA's 35-member Board of Governors before
the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) can get into the act. According to the US-dictated time
table, the George W Bush Administration was looking at a possible meeting of the
Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) consultative group in Vienna in October or November.
The India-US nuclear deal will be on the agenda of that meeting. Once the NSG
exemption comes through, Washington could send the 123 Agreement to the US
Congress for a final vote in November or December. Atomic Energy Commission
Chairman Dr Anil Kakodkar has said that he will be "taking the call" two days before the
IAEA 51st General Conference, which will be held in Vienna from September 17 to 21.
India has already held a series of talks with the IAEA. Incidentally, any safeguards
agreement with the IAEA will need to be based on INFCIRC/66/Rev2, which are item-
specific agreements done with "non-NPT" states.
CPI(M) General Secretary Prakash Karat has maintained that the Left remains firm that
the government should not approach IAEA before the UPA-Left political committee arrives
at findings. "If the government takes any follow-up action on the deal, all steps to stall it
would be taken," he has said. CPI General Secretary AB Bardhan and CPI National
Secretary D Raja, in turn, have suggested that the August 30 announcement of political
committee was reasonably clear that the government cannot go ahead with the 123
Agreement till the committee has evaluated the implications of the Hyde Act. Mr Bardhan
has told reporters that the Left agreed to join the UPA-Left political committee on the
express provision that the next step to operationalise the nuclear deal will not be taken.
According to Mr Bardhan, now that the committee has begun holding talks, it "follows as
a corollary" that the UPA Government will not take any step in the interim to
operationalise the deal.
The Left parties have reasoned that the UPA Government must not enter into any IAEA
safeguards "in perpetuity" until the committee has evaluated the implications of the
Hyde Act. They have raised concerns over Article 2.1 of the 123 Agreement, which states
that in the event of a dispute, national law of the US will prevail. According to CPI(M)
Politburo member Sitaram Yechury, the US-China 123 Agreement says that in the event
of a dispute, international law will prevail. Similarly, the US-Japan agreement talks of an
arbitration panel. "Why then in our 123 Agreement does it say that the national law of the
US will prevail?" Mr Yechury has asked.
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