6 July 2014
We will know soon. Other things being equal, India can be
expected to be represented at the 2 August inauguration of the new president of
Afghanistan. It is reliably learnt that Afghanistan has drawn up a list of
40-odd countries and heads of state and/or government that would be invited for
the ceremony to be held at the Presidential Palace in Kabul. Incidentally, all
SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) members are invited,
which has got some asking: Will Mr Modi travel to Kabul given that he himself
made the unprecedented move of inviting SAARC leaders to his 26 May swearing-in
ceremony?
President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan was among the SAARC
leaders who graced Prime Minister Narendra Modi's swearing-in ceremony. If Mr
Modi, and some or a majority of his SAARC counterparts, indeed make the journey
to Kabul for the inauguration of the new Afghan president-elect, then they
would have well and truly established an unwritten SAARC-wide convention for
the SAARC heads of state and/or government to grace each other's inauguration.
Security will be a consideration, as would protocol, but given Mr Modi's
penchant for the unconventional, it should not come as a surprise if he indeed
decides to attend the ceremony in Kabul. That said, protocol has never come in
the way of the time-tested ties between India and Afghanistan. Most recently,
Vice President Hamid Ansari was the senior-most foreign dignitary to attend the
funeral of Afghanistan's First Vice President Marshal Mohammad Qasim Fahim, who
was a close lieutenant of the late charismatic Northern Alliance commander
Ahmad Shah Masood.
However, if the past is any indicator, it could well be that
the external affairs minister will represent India at the inauguration of an
Afghan president. In UPA-2, a former external affairs minister of India, Mr SM
Krishna, represented India at the 19 November 2009 inauguration of Mr Hamid
Karzai's second consecutive five-year term as President. (Incidentally, New
Delhi had initially planned to nominate Vice President Ansari to attend the
inauguration but decided against it because Mr Ansari was required for chairing
the proceedings of the winter session of Parliament.) About 800 invitees,
including foreign dignitaries, government and military officials and tribal
representatives, were present. On the occasion, Mr Krishna had a separate
meeting with his American counterpart, Ms Hillary Clinton, and got to exchange
pleasantries with his Pakistani counterpart, Mr Shah Mehmood Qureshi.
Going further back, former Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh
dispatched Prithviraj Chavan, Minister of State in the Prime Minister’s Office,
as his personal emissary in a special plane for Mr Karzai's inauguration on 7
December 2004. Mr Chavan was among the representatives from 27-odd foreign
delegations who attended the event. The invitees included, among others, the
then US Vice-President Dick Cheney and the then Defence Minister Donald
Rumsfeld, the then UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan's special adviser Lakhdar
Brahimi, the then Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi and the then
Pakistani Interior Minister Aftab Sherpao.
If Prime Minister Narendra Modi deputes his external affairs
minister, Ms Sushma Swaraj, for representing India at the inauguration, her
visit to Kabul would come almost immediately after conclusion of her talks in
New Delhi with visiting US foreign minister John Kerry. Mr Kerry is expected to
visit New Delhi for the annual India-US strategic dialogue, to be held on 31
July. This year it was Washington's turn to host the Indian delegation for the
strategic dialogue, which is held alternatively in Washington and New Delhi.
However, Mr Modi's ascension as Prime Minister in May prompted Washington to
change tack -- and quickly at that -- given Washington's unofficial boycott of
Mr Modi for close to a decade. The US imposed a visa ban on Mr Modi in 2005 for
his alleged role in the 2002 Gujarat riots and it remains in place to this day.
Washington, accordingly, thought it fit to first send a bipartisan delegation
to call on Mr Modi in New Delhi before hosting him at the White House in
September this year. John McCain of the opposition Republican Party called on
Mr Modi on 3 July. Kerry's aide William Burns will be in New Delhi soon before
Kerry himself comes calling on Mr Modi -- something that would not have been
possible if Washington had hosted the India-US strategic dialogue.
Dr Abdullah Abdullah and (on the right) Mr Ashraf Ghani
The only on-the-record comment so far has come from Mr
AmarSinha, India's ambassador to Afghanistan, who has said that the swearing-in
ceremony of the new Afghan President would be attended by India at duly
appropriate level. He pre-empted speculation about India's preference (between
Ashraf Ghani, a former World Bank economist, a former adviser to the Bonn
Process and a former finance minster in Mr Karzai's transitional
administration, and Dr Abdullah Abdullah, a former foreign minister) for
President by saying that "either of the candidates become President they
both are good friend of India and will work very closely with them (sic). They
look towards India as a true friend[.] Our policy towards Afghanistan
transcends political differences and each government work very closely both in
India as well as here."
Key dates*:
5 April 2014: First round of Afghan presidential election
14 June 2014: Presidential run-off
7 July 2014: Preliminary result of the presidential run-off
24 July 2014: Final result of the presidential run-off
2 August 2014: Inauguration of the new President-elect of
Afghanistan
(* as on 6 July 2014)
