NDA partners pitch for minus-Modi formula to bait new allies

Hyderabad

17 March 2012

Making it to the cover of Time magazine may prompt two-time Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi's followers to believe that he has it in him to lead India, but BJP's allies seem to think otherwise.

These parties seem to be making up their mind that the NDA's electoral prospects in the next parliamentary election, whenever it is called, would be better served without Modi in the lead. Some of them have suggested sotto-voce that the NDA could hope to become more acceptable to voters and allies -- present and potential -- alike, if the likes of a Narendra Modi or even an LK Advani are not projected as shadow premiers. They are calling it a minus formula, similar to the minus-one or minus-two formulae seen in the politics of neighbouring Bangladesh and Pakistan.

For one, the JD(U), which is the second largest constituent of the NDA, sees Modi as a liability and it does not fancy the idea of going to polls with him at the helm. More so, when JD(U) leader and Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar himself is seen as a potential choice for prime minister. What goes in Nitish's favour, as compared to Modi, is the degree of acceptability towards him among non-BJP, non-Congress political parties, some of whom are coming together to constitute what is loosely being called a third or federal front comprising regional parties such as the Trinamul in West Bengal, BJD in Odisha, AIADMK in Tamil Nadu, and, now, SP in Uttar Pradesh, where Mulayam Singh Yadav's party has emerged the winner of the recently concluded Assembly election.

The third front is not without problems or internal contradictions, though. Complicating matters for this motley group is that there are many potential contenders for prime minister, including, but not limited to, Mamata Banerjee and Mulayam Singh Yadav. Already, Samajwadi Party sources have indicated that their next goal after getting a brute majority in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly is to make "Netaji", as Mulayam is called in his party, the prime minister. The SP has indicated its support to the UPA in the event of the Trinamul pulling out of the alliance and there it is speculated that the Congress could offer Mulayam a Cabinet berth to return the favour.

For its part, the Trinamul would not mind an early election because it is better placed than its rivals after winning the last Assembly election. However, if Congress veteran and finance minister Pranab Mukherjee is to be believed, Mamata has a huge challenge ahead of her simply because she is not fluent in Hindi. "If you don't know Hindi, you cannot be a prime minister. There are certain skills that are required for certain work. That is why Narasimha Rao became a good prime minister", Mr Mukherjee had famously remarked in 2009 when asked whether he was in contention for the top job. The language handicap notwithstanding, Mamata's Trinamul could emerge as the pivot of this front and a potential kingmaker in the event of a hung Parliament, where no party or alliance has absolute majority in the Lok Sabha.

Incidentally, the question asked about Modi has been used for Rahul Gandhi, too. A section of the Congress party is in favour of seeing the Gandhi scion succeed Prime Minister Manmohan Singh before the next parliamentary election, if only to enthuse party cadres and voters alike, but Congress President Sonia Gandhi has dismissed the possibility for now. Like cricketer Sachin Tendulkar, Dr Singh is faced with a career dilemma: they would want to know when is a good time to retire. Dr Singh's anxiety is compounded by the fact that for one who invested a large quantum of political capital in the UPA-1 on seeing the India-US nuclear deal through, even at the cost of risking his own government, he is today having to explain why nuclear projects in Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and West Bengal have not taken off. Also, big-ticket reform measures such as entry of FDI of up to 51 per cent in multi-brand retail, or in insurance sector, has
been put on hold for want of consensus among the UPA allies.

Trivedi bites the bullet, but may have bitten off more than he can chew!

Hyderabad
14 March 2012

Dinesh Trivedi's maiden railway budget could well be his last, if the reaction from his own party is any indicator.*

In what can only be described as unprecedented, unconventional, or, comic, barely had Mr Trivedi commended the budget to the House than his party colleagues demanded that the increase in the passenger fares be rolled back in the interest of the common man, who, they said, is already reeling under the burden of recent increases in the prices of fuels and essential commodities.

Sudip Bandopadhyay, a Trinamool MP and Union minister of state of health and family welfare, was the first to fly off the handle, describing the hike in the fares as being against the party's principles and stated position. The Trinamool Congress wants withdrawal of the rail-fare hike, Mr Bandopadhyay told reporters matter-of-factly, suggesting an open breaking of ranks by Mr Trivedi. When pointed out that Mr Trivedi and Mr Bandopadhyay belonged to the same party, Mr Bandopadhyay said that Mr Trivedi, as the railway minister, had performed his Constitutional duty but the party was steadfast in its demand of a roll-back. "The Trinamool Congress never rolls back its demand," Mr Bandopadhyay added for good measure, indicating that the ball was squarely in the court of the UPA Government.

Another Trinamool MP and party spokesman Derek O'Brien was even more candid. "... yes, our party has issues on content," O'Brien said in a message on his Twitter account. "Railway Budget...what was all that about increasing fares across the board? Upper class...maybe ok...but all? Sorry, cannot agree (sic)” read another tweet by him.

The tremors of Mr Trivedi's decision to hike fares was immediately felt in Kolkata, where party supremo and West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee was hardpressed to defend it. The message from Writers' Building to Rail Bhavan was clear: Roll back, or else.

Speaking to reporters at Nandigram in West Bengal, Ms Banerjee said that her party was opposed to the hike.

"We will not accept the fire hike. We will not allow the fire hike to happen for the sake of the common man... we are totally against it. I can assure you this," Ms Banerjee said.

Later in the day, Mr Bandopadhyay told reporters in New Delhi that if necessary, the party will move a cut motion on the issue in Parliament, indicating little possibility of a compromise. In an oblique reference to Mr Trivedi, Mr Bandopadhyay also said that everyone should know that Trinamool was united and committed to its leader, Ms Mamata Banerjee. "Those who do not not abide by the party directive may quit the party. We have no no feelings for them,” he asserted. Adding insult to injury, he indicated that the party could propose a new name to replace Mr Trivedi as railway minister. Furthermore, the Trinamool MPs are likely to take up the issue of rail fare-hike during their sit-in outside Parliament House on Thursday. Also, a delegation of Trinamool MPs is expected to call on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to press for a roll-back of the fares.

The knives were always out for Mr Trivedi; his decision to hike rail fares has further isolated him. Mr Trivedi has not particularly endeared himself to his party for not forcefully articulating Ms Mamata Banerjee's position on key policy issues that were discussed in Cabinet meetings chaired by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Also, Mr Trivedi is the lone Trinamool minister with a Cabinet rank in the UPA Government when those senior to him in the party, such as Mukul Roy, are only ministers of state. Furthermore, Mr Trivedi's effusive praise for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Congress President Sonia Gandhi, and Ms Mamata Banerjee, in that order, in his budget speech left many wondering where his loyalties lie.

Trinamool sources insisted that Mr Trivedi's decision to hike the rail fares went against the grain of the party's stated position. More so, after the party threatened to pull out of the UPA last year over an increase in fuel prices.

However, the Trinamool party's critics would argue that the open criticism of their own minister was unfounded, particularly after Ms Banerjee's government in Bengal allowed the state-run power distribution utility to raise tariff on account of rise in coal prices.

The only praise for Mr Trivedi, predictably, came from the Congress party and the industry. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh described the budget as forward-looking with emphasis on safety and modernisation. Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee, in turn, welcomed Mr Trivedi's attempt to bring down the operating cost of the Indian Railways.

Industry chambers such as CII and Assocham said that the "very minimal" hike in rail fares was a good decision as they had not been increased in nearly a decade.

Mr Trivedi defended himself by maintaining that the hike was not steep. "The Railways was getting into the ICU and I have pulled it out of it," he said stoically. "You cannot have everything".

For somebody who famously asserted in the speech that he has opted to bite the bullet, as opposed to maintaining a status quo, the next few days could determine whether Mr Trivedi actually ended up biting off more than he could chew.

* The report was filed at 4.20 pm on Wednesday, 14 March 2012.