New Delhi
14 July 2005
The "stalemate" in Nepal has upset New Delhi's calculations of any
appreciable forward movement towards ending the decade-long cycle of violence in that
country and containing the spread of Maoists' influence to more districts in Bihar and
other states, not necessarily in that order.
The Indian ambassador in Nepal, Mr Shiv Shankar Mukherjee, who has spent the last
few days meeting top leaders including the defence minister in New Delhi, is understood
to have painted a grim picture of the situation there despite peace overtures by Maoist
leader Pushpa Kumar Dahal alias Prachanda.
The economy of Nepal is in a shambles; tourism hit a new low post-February 1 and it
continues to remain so. International aid is dwindling and donors are increasingly
becoming restless. Nepal's finances can sustain the country only for the next 11-odd
months while insurgency rages on.
If the buzz in the corridors of power is any indicator, New Delhi is still to get a grip on the
developments leave alone leverage its unique position in the subcontinent to either
make the Maoists shun violence or to raise hopes of a return to democracy five months
after King Gyanendra dismissed the government.
New Delhi has chosen to respond to recent developments by welcoming the proposal for
talks but reiterating nevertheless that there cannot be a military solution to the problem
and that a political solution is the way out of the crisis. Care has also gone into not
estranging the monarchy any further.
Recalibration of India's response owes in part to the spread of Maoist insurgency to 150
districts in states bordering Nepal and beyond. That, and the spectre of a Maoist-
controlled neighbour turning into a safe haven for disgruntled elements have combined
to ring the alarm bell in New Delhi.
Prachanda has urged political parties in Nepal to join negotiations to end the insurgency.
The political parties have welcomed the Maoists' call for talks but have asked them to
give up violence before entering into a dialogue. They have also sought the involvement
of the international community, including India.
A three-member United Nations team led by Lakhadar Brahimi, special advisor to UN
Secretary General Kofi Annan, was in Nepal recently and held talks with political parties
and officials. His visit was a follow-up of the meeting between King Gyanendra and Mr
Kofi Annan in Jakarta in April.
No comments:
Post a Comment