New Delhi
12 September 2009
That India has certain reservations about the CTBT was known before a section
of the scientific fraternity triggered the latest controversy. On March 30, former foreign
secretary Shivshankar Menon told a news conference on the eve of Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh's visit for the G-20 Summit that the treaty in its current form did not
satisfy New Delhi. Earlier in March, Shyam Saran, Prime Minister's special envoy on
nuclear issues, reminded his American interlocutors that CTBT should be explicitly
linked to the goal of nuclear disarmament. He told an interaction organised by The
Brookings Institution in Washington that "if the world really moves categorically towards
nuclear disarmament in a credible timeframe, then India-US differences over the CTBT
will probably recede into the background."
A source familiar with the CTBT negotiation process told this newspaper that India's
stand was predicated on the following issues:
* Whether there was an express link to disarmament;
* how to deal with the Article 14, which places India in a category of states whose
signature and ratification is deemed necessary in order for the treaty to come into force;
* salience of hydronuclear technology for India given the reports that China and Russia
were conducting hydronuclear tests to corroborate computer findings and/or simulations;
* making public a secret understanding by the P5 in 1999, which a US diplomat alluded
to during a Congressional hearing; and
* if all the other states including India agree, would Pakistan and North Korea come on
board.
Foreign ministers from a 100-odd countries would meet in New York on September 24
and 25 to promote the entry into force of the CTBT. For the first time since 1999 the US
will participate in the conference, which would issue a final declaration calling upon India
and eight other countries -- China, North Korea, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Israel and
Pakistan -- to ratify the treaty. Also, US President Barack Obama has convened a
meeting of the UN Security Council on September 24 to focus on nuclear disarmament
and non-proliferation, including CTBT. It would be the first time since 1992 that such a
meeting of the UN Security Council takes place.
Opinion at home was divided, with some insisting that India should not rush into signing
the CTBT while others felt that it would be absurd for India to say no if more countries
came on board. An influential section of the foreign policy brains trust iterated India's
steadfast commitment to voluntary moratorium and insisted that the government was
satisfied with the state of deterrent posture. It was also reasoned that the situation today
was different because acquisition of requisite technology post-1998 stood New Delhi in
good stead should it need to refine the safety and reliability of nuclear arsenal without
conducting explosive test.
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