New Delhi
8 February 2011
It is not often that India is forced to sit up and take notice of the developments in
the Arab world, but the unfolding events in Egypt and their likely implications, in the
short- and long-term, for India, the region and the world, are doing just that.
New Delhi will be loathe to admit it, but its pursuit of an economic-centric foreign policy
can come under strain if it does not negotiate the political minefield that is West Asia,
with its attendant complexities.
A crisis in that region could have an impact on bilateral trade, foreign remittances from
overseas Indians, and food- and energy security. About 70 per cent of India's crude oil
imports come from that region, particularly Saudi Arabia and Iran. The region is also a
source of fertiliser imports.
Opinion in official circles is divided on whether the unrest in Egypt should be described
as a popular revolution or as another in a series of "colour" revolutions of the past.
There is also the question of whether and how far should India go to support the uprising
in Egypt.
Will speaking up for the Egyptian people upset India's relations with some of the
monarchs and autocrats in the region, not to mention the West? How and what does
India stand to gain or lose if the hitherto stable regime in Cairo crumbles?
But, significantly for New Delhi, a fallout of the debate on the situation in Egypt and West
Asia is the emergence of the view that the balance of power in the region is shifting; that
Iran's rise is inevitable; and that India should not wait to repair its ties with that country.
India and Iran have enjoyed civilisational links, but the ties soured after New Delhi led
itself into a situation where it had to choose between Tehran and Washington, with which
it was negotiating a nuclear deal.
India has made some overtures to Iran but the still-born Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline
is an example of the inertia that has set into the bilateral relationship. Incidentally, Iran
will host the 2012 Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) summit, of which India and Egypt are co-
founders.
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