New Delhi
8 August 2005
Defence Minister Pranab Mukherjee may have been articulating
New Delhi's concerns when he said in Kolkata over the weekend that he hopes the Royal
Nepalese Army "successfully tackles" the Maoists but, as a recent report suggests, the
RNA lacked the capacity to contain the Maoist insurgency despite gaining in strength in
terms of equipment, weapons and training.
"If the war with Maoists continues, Nepal's survival will be doubtful," cautions the report
titled "The Second Freedom: South Asian Challenge 2005-2025" published by Strategic
Foresight Group. It goes on to observe that the Maoists and the RNA were fighting two
distinct wars: The Maoists were following a warfare plan in which territorial control is of
minimal significance. The State, on the other hand, is concentrating on defence of towns
and key infrastructure.
The report says the Maoists were running out of sources of funding and therefore,
"supporting the Jihadis in order to raise funds, by helping in the transit of Jihadis from
Madrasas in western Uttar Pradesh, through the Terai region in Nepal, to Bangladesh." A
chapter devoted to "red terror's flirtation with green terror" talks about how Left terror
groups were turning to Islamic sponsorship for arms, funds and training. The linkages
between the two "is bound to turn the entire eastern part of South Asia into a colourful
inferno between 2005 and 2025, most likely, during the 2010-2015 period."
On the democray deficit in South Asia in general and Nepal in particular, the report states
that there have been 15 governments in the last 15 years in the Himalayan Kingdom.
"Obviously," it observes, "the Nepalese democrats have treated politics as a game of
subtraction, in which they themselves have been subtracted to the advantage of the
Monarch and the Maoists."
As damage to institutions, infrastructure and human capital continues, Nepal's growth
prospects will diminish [and] the country would be unable to continue as a state without
international support, adds the report.
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